{"punk":7981,"name":"CryptoPunk #7981","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/7981","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/7981.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":2,"attributes":["Hot Lipstick","Earring","Headband","Clown Eyes Green"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":29.0991,"usd":61787,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.4031,"high_eth":30.9001,"low_usd":58186,"high_usd":65611},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.8059,"high_eth":32.8126,"low_usd":54795,"high_usd":69672},"sigma_log":0.0601,"multiple_of_floor":0.9572,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":29.0991,"usd":61787,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":27.4031,"high_eth":30.9001,"low_usd":58186,"high_usd":65611},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":25.8059,"high_eth":32.8126,"low_usd":54795,"high_usd":69672},"sigma_log":0.0601,"multiple_of_floor":0.9572,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":33,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":33,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.42,"public_asks":404,"punk":4351}},"listing":{"ask_eth":38.86,"ask_usd":82513,"z":4.81,"z_text":"4.8σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-05-20T11:59:47.000Z","days_listed":172},"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[{"pct":2.8,"beta":0.0274,"term":"tone2","label":"Skin tone 2 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":51.5},{"pct":-3.7,"beta":-0.0376,"term":"attr:Headband","label":"Headband","sales_12m":47,"weighted_sales":4.9},{"pct":-4.1,"beta":-0.0424,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Green","label":"Clown Eyes Green","sales_12m":61,"weighted_sales":9.7}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":9.26,"date":"2021-02-15","block":11860289,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":218,"adjusted_eth":34.7536},{"eth":10.49,"date":"2021-02-15","block":11861234,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":268,"adjusted_eth":39.3699},{"eth":46,"date":"2025-05-15","block":22489464,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":328,"adjusted_eth":30.015},{"eth":25.1,"date":"2026-04-17","block":24897901,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":166,"adjusted_eth":28.4823}],"comparables":[{"eth":52.5,"date":"2025-07-31","punk":6698,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.6923,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":46.99,"date":"2025-03-31","punk":5036,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.5406,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":42,"date":"2025-01-02","punk":5858,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.8315,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":29,"date":"2026-10-20","punk":3190,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.1932,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.008,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":3976,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9693,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.42,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":4065,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3906,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.9,"date":"2026-09-07","punk":8450,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3391,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50.5,"date":"2026-08-23","punk":5541,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":48.005,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0525,"type_multiple":{"sales":439,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0088,"median_multiple":1.0088},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Hot Lipstick","sales_12m":87},{"attribute":"Earring","sales_12m":303}],"summary":["Estimate 29.1 ETH (beta), 1σ range 27.4 to 30.9 ETH, 2σ range 25.8 to 32.8 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (439 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +3%, Headband -4%, Clown Eyes Green -4%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/7981","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}