{"punk":8154,"name":"CryptoPunk #8154","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8154","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8154.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Knitted Cap","Vape"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":31.8976,"usd":67729,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.173,"high_eth":33.7209,"low_usd":64067,"high_usd":71601},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.5416,"high_eth":35.6483,"low_usd":60603,"high_usd":75693},"sigma_log":0.0556,"multiple_of_floor":1.0493,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":31.8976,"usd":67729,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.173,"high_eth":33.7209,"low_usd":64067,"high_usd":71601},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.5416,"high_eth":35.6483,"low_usd":60603,"high_usd":75693},"sigma_log":0.0556,"multiple_of_floor":1.0493,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":27,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":27,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.42,"public_asks":404,"punk":4351}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4,"beta":0.0393,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":41.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":21,"date":"2021-07-17","block":12847085,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":188,"adjusted_eth":32.7553},{"eth":50,"date":"2021-08-20","block":13065183,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":87,"adjusted_eth":29.2364},{"eth":65,"date":"2023-02-10","block":16599143,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":157,"adjusted_eth":31.2214},{"eth":74.77,"date":"2023-03-20","block":16870237,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":192,"adjusted_eth":34.4447},{"eth":61,"date":"2023-04-02","block":16961395,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":396,"adjusted_eth":30.917},{"eth":63,"date":"2023-12-29","block":18888367,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":42,"adjusted_eth":34.3842},{"eth":31,"date":"2025-11-12","block":23781228,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":509,"adjusted_eth":27.0416},{"eth":29.39,"date":"2026-04-22","block":24936290,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":631,"adjusted_eth":30.9368},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-08-31","block":25876488,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":619,"adjusted_eth":28.9841}],"comparables":[{"eth":58,"date":"2026-10-14","punk":5191,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":56.3503,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.66,"date":"2026-10-01","punk":1165,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.0174,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.8,"date":"2026-09-29","punk":1165,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7737,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.41,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":2876,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.3813,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.98,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":6573,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.361,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.8,"date":"2026-08-27","punk":2876,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.8002,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-08-27","punk":2876,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.0506,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.18,"date":"2026-08-16","punk":2876,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.0393,"type_multiple":{"sales":439,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0088,"median_multiple":1.0088},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Knitted Cap","sales_12m":49},{"attribute":"Vape","sales_12m":50}],"summary":["Estimate 31.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.2 to 33.7 ETH, 2σ range 28.5 to 35.6 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (439 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8154","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}