{"punk":8215,"name":"CryptoPunk #8215","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8215","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8215.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Chinstrap","Mohawk Thin","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":32.2866,"usd":68555,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.8037,"high_eth":34.9763,"low_usd":63283,"high_usd":74267},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.5117,"high_eth":37.8901,"low_usd":58417,"high_usd":80453},"sigma_log":0.08,"multiple_of_floor":1.0621,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":32.2866,"usd":68555,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.8037,"high_eth":34.9763,"low_usd":63283,"high_usd":74267},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.5117,"high_eth":37.8901,"low_usd":58417,"high_usd":80453},"sigma_log":0.08,"multiple_of_floor":1.0621,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.7,"beta":0.1197,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":65},{"pct":-5.2,"beta":-0.0534,"term":"attr:Chinstrap","label":"Chinstrap","sales_12m":42,"weighted_sales":18.8},{"pct":-10.7,"beta":-0.1133,"term":"attr:Mohawk Thin","label":"Mohawk Thin","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":10.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.1,"date":"2017-12-29","block":4820533,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":57,"adjusted_eth":30.7071},{"eth":4.5,"date":"2021-01-07","block":11609421,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":79,"adjusted_eth":29.1684},{"eth":5.3,"date":"2021-02-05","block":11793020,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":246,"adjusted_eth":31.4687},{"eth":6.25,"date":"2021-02-12","block":11839457,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":247,"adjusted_eth":31.405},{"eth":55,"date":"2022-06-14","block":14963638,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":40,"adjusted_eth":34.8406},{"eth":46,"date":"2025-06-26","block":22789361,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":200,"adjusted_eth":35.8564}],"comparables":[{"eth":33,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":2303,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.9891,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.94,"date":"2026-06-25","punk":5842,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.7652,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33,"date":"2026-06-11","punk":2303,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.6789,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-06-03","punk":5842,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0844,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.015,"date":"2025-12-08","punk":5269,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3042,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":66,"date":"2025-08-20","punk":5477,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":42.3291,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":52.5,"date":"2025-07-28","punk":2404,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.5665,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":50,"date":"2025-05-22","punk":5396,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4232,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0035,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":44}],"summary":["Estimate 32.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.8 to 35.0 ETH, 2σ range 27.5 to 37.9 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Chinstrap -5%, Mohawk Thin -11%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8215","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}