{"punk":8389,"name":"CryptoPunk #8389","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8389","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8389.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Frown","Mustache","Cap Forward"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":33.8421,"usd":71858,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.1494,"high_eth":36.7675,"low_usd":66141,"high_usd":78070},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.671,"high_eth":39.9458,"low_usd":60878,"high_usd":84818},"sigma_log":0.0829,"multiple_of_floor":1.1132,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":33.8421,"usd":71858,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.1494,"high_eth":36.7675,"low_usd":66141,"high_usd":78070},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.671,"high_eth":39.9458,"low_usd":60878,"high_usd":84818},"sigma_log":0.0829,"multiple_of_floor":1.1132,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":5,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":5,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":{"ask_eth":35,"ask_usd":74317,"z":0.41,"z_text":"0.4σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-08-21T23:42:11.000Z","days_listed":79},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.25,"date":"2019-11-23","block":8984890,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":109,"adjusted_eth":21.1111},{"eth":0.26,"date":"2019-11-23","block":8985194,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":31,"adjusted_eth":21.9556},{"eth":2.17,"date":"2020-09-23","block":10919124,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":317,"adjusted_eth":30.6828},{"eth":4.25,"date":"2020-09-28","block":10950112,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":76,"adjusted_eth":22.3143},{"eth":4.1,"date":"2020-10-09","block":11021645,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":348,"adjusted_eth":27.6978},{"eth":21.97,"date":"2021-04-28","block":12328226,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":154,"adjusted_eth":31.079},{"eth":20.38,"date":"2021-05-09","block":12401107,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":261,"adjusted_eth":32.3526},{"eth":19,"date":"2021-07-07","block":12781916,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":196,"adjusted_eth":32.0889},{"eth":19.95,"date":"2021-07-12","block":12814838,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":19,"adjusted_eth":31.92},{"eth":28.85,"date":"2026-02-19","block":24491346,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":141,"adjusted_eth":29.3816},{"eth":28.95,"date":"2026-02-23","block":24521532,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":202,"adjusted_eth":29.4735}],"comparables":[{"eth":40,"date":"2026-10-12","punk":3758,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":38.6154,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.65,"date":"2026-02-06","punk":1769,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2043,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":27.8,"date":"2026-02-04","punk":1769,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.3123,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":25.7,"date":"2026-02-03","punk":1769,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.947,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37,"date":"2025-11-04","punk":704,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.7778,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":57.95,"date":"2025-07-29","punk":4411,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":33.2518,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":126,"date":"2025-07-25","punk":3039,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":73.6757,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":56,"date":"2025-05-25","punk":704,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":35.9232,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0435,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Frown","sales_12m":39},{"attribute":"Mustache","sales_12m":52},{"attribute":"Cap Forward","sales_12m":24}],"summary":["Estimate 33.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.1 to 36.8 ETH, 2σ range 28.7 to 39.9 ETH, confidence Low, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8389","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}