{"punk":8586,"name":"CryptoPunk #8586","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8586","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8586.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Mohawk Thin","Clown Eyes Blue"],"attribute_count":2,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":26.9009,"usd":57120,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":23.7952,"high_eth":30.4119,"low_usd":50525,"high_usd":64575},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":21.0481,"high_eth":34.3812,"low_usd":44692,"high_usd":73003},"sigma_log":0.1227,"multiple_of_floor":0.8849,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":26.9009,"usd":57120,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":23.7952,"high_eth":30.4119,"low_usd":50525,"high_usd":64575},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":21.0481,"high_eth":34.3812,"low_usd":44692,"high_usd":73003},"sigma_log":0.1227,"multiple_of_floor":0.8849,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":31,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":31,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":{"ask_eth":125,"ask_usd":265417,"z":12.52,"z_text":"12.5σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2022-07-16T02:31:07.000Z","days_listed":1577},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":-3.4,"beta":-0.035,"term":"count2","label":"2 attributes (vs 3)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":99.3},{"pct":-10.7,"beta":-0.1133,"term":"attr:Mohawk Thin","label":"Mohawk Thin","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":10.8},{"pct":-7.8,"beta":-0.0812,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Blue","label":"Clown Eyes Blue","sales_12m":65,"weighted_sales":6.2}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.1,"date":"2018-08-22","block":6195126,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":8,"adjusted_eth":30.4},{"eth":1,"date":"2020-05-24","block":10127875,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":75,"adjusted_eth":27.8899},{"eth":1.75,"date":"2020-09-14","block":10862409,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":49,"adjusted_eth":27.4227},{"eth":1.99,"date":"2020-09-20","block":10900674,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":154,"adjusted_eth":28.1377},{"eth":5.9,"date":"2020-09-29","block":10959784,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":44,"adjusted_eth":30.1953},{"eth":19.7,"date":"2021-03-26","block":12116780,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":40,"adjusted_eth":31.1106},{"eth":0,"date":"2021-07-30","block":12923949,"source":"native-buy","excluded":"no-price","log_index":287,"adjusted_eth":null},{"eth":76.99,"date":"2021-09-15","block":13229827,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":109,"adjusted_eth":28.0299},{"eth":97.5,"date":"2021-09-28","block":13313399,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":46,"adjusted_eth":27.5721},{"eth":103,"date":"2021-09-28","block":13316174,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":40,"adjusted_eth":29.1274},{"eth":117.69,"date":"2021-10-01","block":13330239,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":29,"adjusted_eth":28.7372},{"eth":65,"date":"2022-02-20","block":14241487,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":67,"adjusted_eth":29.5366}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.01,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.8674,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.67,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3975,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.4,"date":"2026-10-04","punk":5635,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7778,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":38.91,"date":"2026-09-30","punk":5329,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.8499,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":32.32,"date":"2026-09-29","punk":5635,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.338,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":31.2,"date":"2026-09-29","punk":5635,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.3213,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":36,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":192,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.4844,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":33.29,"date":"2026-09-22","punk":3667,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.2062,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":-0.186,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[],"summary":["Estimate 26.9 ETH (beta), 1σ range 23.8 to 30.4 ETH, 2σ range 21.0 to 34.4 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -3%, Mohawk Thin -11%, Clown Eyes Blue -8%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8586","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}