{"punk":8648,"name":"CryptoPunk #8648","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8648","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8648.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Mole","Mohawk Thin","Eye Patch"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":33.7843,"usd":71735,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.103,"high_eth":36.6966,"low_usd":66042,"high_usd":77919},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.6346,"high_eth":39.86,"low_usd":60801,"high_usd":84636},"sigma_log":0.0827,"multiple_of_floor":1.1113,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":33.7843,"usd":71735,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":31.103,"high_eth":36.6966,"low_usd":66042,"high_usd":77919},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.6346,"high_eth":39.86,"low_usd":60801,"high_usd":84636},"sigma_log":0.0827,"multiple_of_floor":1.1113,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"High","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":52,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":20,"beta":0.1822,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":25.1},{"pct":-6.8,"beta":-0.0706,"term":"attr:Mole","label":"Mole","sales_12m":90,"weighted_sales":23},{"pct":-10.7,"beta":-0.1133,"term":"attr:Mohawk Thin","label":"Mohawk Thin","sales_12m":51,"weighted_sales":10.8}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":22.75,"date":"2021-04-30","block":12344132,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":90,"adjusted_eth":33.5728},{"eth":75,"date":"2022-06-19","block":14991534,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":61,"adjusted_eth":34.2086},{"eth":81.5,"date":"2022-08-10","block":15313714,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":204,"adjusted_eth":33.1762},{"eth":57,"date":"2024-02-19","block":19262363,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":205,"adjusted_eth":30.4641},{"eth":38.45,"date":"2024-04-29","block":19758851,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":159,"adjusted_eth":32.4779},{"eth":36.69,"date":"2024-05-13","block":19862499,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":318,"adjusted_eth":27.8914},{"eth":40.8,"date":"2024-05-18","block":19897212,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":8,"adjusted_eth":32.8562},{"eth":38,"date":"2025-01-08","block":21580723,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":195,"adjusted_eth":31.2301},{"eth":39.99,"date":"2025-01-14","block":21624687,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":27,"adjusted_eth":29.7236},{"eth":39.9,"date":"2025-01-18","block":21653368,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":99,"adjusted_eth":32.5627}],"comparables":[{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-09-21","punk":5559,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.9097,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.65,"date":"2026-09-17","punk":5866,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.359,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.501,"date":"2026-09-05","punk":5866,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8906,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.58,"date":"2026-05-06","punk":1012,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.97,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.89,"date":"2026-04-22","punk":5866,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4105,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.58,"date":"2026-03-24","punk":1012,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5446,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.79,"date":"2026-03-21","punk":2124,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.7201,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.4,"date":"2026-03-15","punk":1012,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.8299,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0418,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Eye Patch","sales_12m":74}],"summary":["Estimate 33.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.1 to 36.7 ETH, 2σ range 28.6 to 39.9 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +20%, Mole -7%, Mohawk Thin -11%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8648","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}