{"punk":8871,"name":"CryptoPunk #8871","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8871","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8871.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Front Beard","Earring","Stringy Hair","Small Shades"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":31.3319,"usd":66528,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.619,"high_eth":34.3019,"low_usd":60768,"high_usd":72835},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.141,"high_eth":37.5535,"low_usd":55506,"high_usd":79739},"sigma_log":0.0906,"multiple_of_floor":1.0307,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":31.3319,"usd":66528,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":28.619,"high_eth":34.3019,"low_usd":60768,"high_usd":72835},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":26.141,"high_eth":37.5535,"low_usd":55506,"high_usd":79739},"sigma_log":0.0906,"multiple_of_floor":1.0307,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":5,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":5,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":{"ask_eth":37.69,"ask_usd":80029,"z":2.04,"z_text":"2.0σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-10-22T14:34:35.000Z","days_listed":17},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.7,"beta":0.1197,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":65},{"pct":-7.2,"beta":-0.0751,"term":"attr:Front Beard","label":"Front Beard","sales_12m":38,"weighted_sales":11},{"pct":-2.3,"beta":-0.0237,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.9},{"pct":-9.3,"beta":-0.0981,"term":"attr:Stringy Hair","label":"Stringy Hair","sales_12m":94,"weighted_sales":24.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.7,"date":"2020-06-19","block":10294550,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":159,"adjusted_eth":21.4949},{"eth":1.14,"date":"2020-06-20","block":10299907,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":44,"adjusted_eth":30.669},{"eth":1.25,"date":"2020-09-11","block":10840918,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":124,"adjusted_eth":27.5362},{"eth":2.4,"date":"2020-09-24","block":10925041,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":10,"adjusted_eth":27.5321},{"eth":5.75,"date":"2021-02-01","block":11772014,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":201,"adjusted_eth":34.2745},{"eth":17.2,"date":"2021-03-31","block":12146520,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":119,"adjusted_eth":32.8855},{"eth":119,"date":"2021-08-28","block":13113151,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":42,"adjusted_eth":26.2722},{"eth":96.88,"date":"2021-09-16","block":13234954,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":64,"adjusted_eth":28.874},{"eth":34,"date":"2026-09-23","block":26036610,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":322,"adjusted_eth":30.4},{"eth":32,"date":"2026-10-16","block":26202080,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":477,"adjusted_eth":31.3806}],"comparables":[{"eth":41.5,"date":"2025-02-08","punk":2913,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.056,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":37.5,"date":"2025-01-22","punk":2913,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.5214,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-11-02","punk":9585,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.9798,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":34.45,"date":"2026-08-21","punk":2524,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.2737,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.43,"date":"2026-08-12","punk":2524,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.1637,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":43.4784,"date":"2026-07-02","punk":6980,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":41.3432,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":38.99,"date":"2026-06-16","punk":8918,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.2476,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.85,"date":"2026-06-13","punk":2595,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":29.6098,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":-0.0335,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Small Shades","sales_12m":44}],"summary":["Estimate 31.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.6 to 34.3 ETH, 2σ range 26.1 to 37.6 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Front Beard -7%, Earring -2%, Stringy Hair -9%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8871","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}