{"punk":8924,"name":"CryptoPunk #8924","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/8924","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/8924.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Black Lipstick","Headband","Horned Rim Glasses"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":30.7211,"usd":65231,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.1643,"high_eth":32.3611,"low_usd":61926,"high_usd":68714},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.6863,"high_eth":34.0887,"low_usd":58787,"high_usd":72382},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0106,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.7211,"usd":65231,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":29.1643,"high_eth":32.3611,"low_usd":61926,"high_usd":68714},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":27.6863,"high_eth":34.0887,"low_usd":58787,"high_usd":72382},"sigma_log":0.052,"multiple_of_floor":1.0106,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"High","cell":"Female 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":29,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":29,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.42,"public_asks":404,"punk":4351}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4,"beta":0.0393,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":41.2},{"pct":-3.7,"beta":-0.0376,"term":"attr:Headband","label":"Headband","sales_12m":47,"weighted_sales":4.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 2-3","seen":{"n":839,"cover1":0.634,"cover2":0.871,"bias_pct":-0.6,"within10":0.802,"within25":0.952,"MdALE_pct":4.1},"thin":false,"sigma":0.052,"selection":{"n":1056,"cover1":0.688,"cover2":0.916,"bias_pct":-1.5,"within10":0.841,"within25":0.968,"MdALE_pct":4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":0.5,"date":"2019-05-06","block":7704852,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":19,"adjusted_eth":34.5455},{"eth":20.49,"date":"2021-03-06","block":11983141,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":153,"adjusted_eth":35.5941},{"eth":22.99,"date":"2021-04-08","block":12201240,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":82,"adjusted_eth":35.495},{"eth":23.5,"date":"2021-05-03","block":12362163,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":2,"adjusted_eth":34.9853},{"eth":20,"date":"2021-06-16","block":12647869,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":847,"adjusted_eth":39.5319},{"eth":14.55,"date":"2021-06-25","block":12703693,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":384,"adjusted_eth":30.0898},{"eth":16.49,"date":"2021-06-29","block":12726431,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":255,"adjusted_eth":28.8101},{"eth":17.95,"date":"2021-06-29","block":12732006,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":213,"adjusted_eth":31.3609},{"eth":52,"date":"2021-08-06","block":12970757,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":33,"adjusted_eth":32.2612},{"eth":43.47,"date":"2021-08-06","block":12974192,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":87,"adjusted_eth":26.9691},{"eth":48.5,"date":"2021-08-06","block":12974439,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":55,"adjusted_eth":30.0898},{"eth":57,"date":"2023-04-06","block":16991339,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":140,"adjusted_eth":28.8848},{"eth":58,"date":"2023-11-10","block":18538301,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":228,"adjusted_eth":29.8847},{"eth":65,"date":"2023-11-10","block":18541701,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":117,"adjusted_eth":33.4915}],"comparables":[{"eth":33.33,"date":"2026-10-09","punk":1895,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":32.1763,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":32.47,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":9228,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.032,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.5,"date":"2026-09-03","punk":1895,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.1528,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.79,"date":"2026-08-27","punk":2403,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7909,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.4,"date":"2026-08-09","punk":1895,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.5329,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31,"date":"2026-08-06","punk":2403,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.1134,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30.501,"date":"2026-07-28","punk":2403,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.6447,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-06-29","punk":1895,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9524,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.0017,"type_multiple":{"sales":439,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0088,"median_multiple":1.0088},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Black Lipstick","sales_12m":95},{"attribute":"Horned Rim Glasses","sales_12m":50}],"summary":["Estimate 30.7 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.2 to 32.4 ETH, 2σ range 27.7 to 34.1 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (439 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +4%, Headband -4%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 2-3 sales landed within ±4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.1% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/8924","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}