{"punk":9133,"name":"CryptoPunk #9133","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9133","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9133.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":1,"attributes":["Luxurious Beard","Top Hat","Clown Eyes Green"],"attribute_count":3,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":40.7951,"usd":86622,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.4566,"high_eth":46.9374,"low_usd":75286,"high_usd":99664},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.8167,"high_eth":54.0045,"low_usd":65434,"high_usd":114670},"sigma_log":0.1403,"multiple_of_floor":1.3419,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":40.7951,"usd":86622,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":35.4566,"high_eth":46.9374,"low_usd":75286,"high_usd":99664},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":30.8167,"high_eth":54.0045,"low_usd":65434,"high_usd":114670},"sigma_log":0.1403,"multiple_of_floor":1.3419,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 2-3","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":5,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":5,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":{"ask_eth":52,"ask_usd":110414,"z":1.73,"z_text":"1.7σ above the estimate","listed_since":"2026-08-04T12:36:23.000Z","days_listed":96},"argument":{"cell":"Male 2-3","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":30.1,"beta":0.2631,"term":"attr:Top Hat","label":"Top Hat","sales_12m":6,"weighted_sales":1.7},{"pct":-7.3,"beta":-0.0763,"term":"attr:Clown Eyes Green","label":"Clown Eyes Green","sales_12m":61,"weighted_sales":8.5}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 2-3","seen":{"n":1435,"cover1":0.708,"cover2":0.933,"bias_pct":-0.7,"within10":0.745,"within25":0.947,"MdALE_pct":5.7},"thin":false,"sigma":0.08,"selection":{"n":1945,"cover1":0.69,"cover2":0.939,"bias_pct":-1.3,"within10":0.719,"within25":0.96,"MdALE_pct":6.1}},"own_sales":[{"eth":44,"date":"2025-02-16","block":21860420,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":256,"adjusted_eth":37.6895},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-04-16","block":24889890,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":62,"adjusted_eth":44.4479}],"comparables":[{"eth":130,"date":"2026-05-19","punk":8870,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":116.3037,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31,"date":"2025-11-22","punk":7158,"source":"native-bid","adjusted_eth":31.5289,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":54.75,"date":"2025-04-08","punk":7158,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":39.0888,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":37,"date":"2026-11-01","punk":6406,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":36.9878,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":38,"date":"2026-10-31","punk":2473,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":37.9875,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":30,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":3662,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.7165,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":29.15,"date":"2026-10-25","punk":3662,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.8746,"shared_attributes":1},{"eth":39.88,"date":"2026-09-24","punk":4714,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":35.9855,"shared_attributes":1}],"premium_log":0.2304,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Luxurious Beard","sales_12m":41}],"summary":["Estimate 40.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 35.5 to 46.9 ETH, 2σ range 30.8 to 54.0 ETH, confidence Low, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Top Hat +30%, Clown Eyes Green -7%.","In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9133","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}