{"punk":9585,"name":"CryptoPunk #9585","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9585","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9585.svg","type":"Male","skin_tone":3,"attributes":["Normal Beard Black","Earring","Stringy Hair","Eye Patch"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":33.7742,"usd":71714,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.8244,"high_eth":37.0063,"low_usd":65451,"high_usd":78577},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.1322,"high_eth":40.5477,"low_usd":59734,"high_usd":86096},"sigma_log":0.0914,"multiple_of_floor":1.111,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":33.7742,"usd":71714,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":30.8244,"high_eth":37.0063,"low_usd":65451,"high_usd":78577},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":28.1322,"high_eth":40.5477,"low_usd":59734,"high_usd":86096},"sigma_log":0.0914,"multiple_of_floor":1.111,"n1_eth":32.4001,"confidence":"Low","cell":"Male 4+","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":5,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":5,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Male","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4,"public_asks":744,"punk":7843}},"listing":{"ask_eth":33.9,"ask_usd":71981,"z":0.04,"z_text":"at the estimate","listed_since":"2026-11-03T15:37:23.000Z","days_listed":5},"argument":{"cell":"Male 4+","terms":[{"pct":4.5,"beta":0.0435,"term":"drift","label":"Male market level","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":null},{"pct":12.7,"beta":0.1197,"term":"tone3","label":"Skin tone 3 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":65},{"pct":-2.3,"beta":-0.0237,"term":"attr:Earring","label":"Earring","sales_12m":303,"weighted_sales":70.9},{"pct":-9.3,"beta":-0.0981,"term":"attr:Stringy Hair","label":"Stringy Hair","sales_12m":94,"weighted_sales":24.6}],"backtest":{"cell":"Male 4+","seen":{"n":276,"cover1":0.736,"cover2":0.931,"bias_pct":1,"within10":0.71,"within25":0.928,"MdALE_pct":5.6},"thin":false,"sigma":0.089,"selection":{"n":293,"cover1":0.683,"cover2":0.932,"bias_pct":1.1,"within10":0.662,"within25":0.949,"MdALE_pct":6.9}},"own_sales":[{"eth":51.35,"date":"2023-06-11","block":17457112,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":3,"adjusted_eth":30.0258},{"eth":30.99,"date":"2026-11-02","block":26330428,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":201,"adjusted_eth":30.9798}],"comparables":[{"eth":29.35,"date":"2026-10-23","punk":8427,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.7819,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":37.89,"date":"2025-10-24","punk":8427,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.32,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":41,"date":"2025-07-09","punk":6193,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.6833,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":43.98,"date":"2025-04-27","punk":4875,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0448,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":41,"date":"2025-03-27","punk":6193,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.334,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":37.99,"date":"2025-03-10","punk":6193,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.4041,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":43,"date":"2025-01-26","punk":4875,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.9609,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":38.75,"date":"2024-11-23","punk":4875,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":31.255,"shared_attributes":3}],"premium_log":0.0415,"type_multiple":{"sales":771,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0658,"median_multiple":1.0658},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Normal Beard Black","sales_12m":21},{"attribute":"Eye Patch","sales_12m":74}],"summary":["Estimate 33.8 ETH (beta), 1σ range 30.8 to 37.0 ETH, 2σ range 28.1 to 40.5 ETH, confidence Low, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 3 (vs 1) +13%, Earring -2%, Stringy Hair -9%.","In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[{"sale_day":"2026-11-02","estimate_date":"2026-11-01","price_eth":30.99,"est_eth":33.9383,"low1":30.9567,"high1":37.2071,"low2":28.2371,"high2":40.7907,"z":-0.99,"confidence":"Low","source":"native-buy","prospective":true,"model_version":"est-v2-202610","z_text":"1.0σ below the estimate"}],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9585","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}