{"punk":9748,"name":"CryptoPunk #9748","url":"https://punkprice.com/punk/9748","image":"https://punkprice.com/api/punk-image/9748.svg","type":"Female","skin_tone":4,"attributes":["Black Lipstick","Mohawk Dark","Cigarette","Green Eye Shadow"],"attribute_count":4,"model":{"version":"est-v2-202610","beta":true,"label":"Valuation (beta), not a floor","spec_sha256":"1cf27321b403ea86f6972db116008f450d113e635f10c03d21207a83f7bfb63f","method":"https://punkprice.com/about#estimate","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/track-record","rule":"N1 (floor x type median multiple of the last 12 months) plus, for Female and Male punks, only the attribute, skin tone, attribute count and drift terms whose 95% interval excludes zero (per-type weighted ridge, Huber loss, half-life 90 days). Zombie, Ape, Alien: weighted median multiple of all their sales (half-life 2 years). Bands: floor x exp(log estimate +- k sigma), sigma = sqrt(s_cell^2 + (0.5 x premium)^2).","caveats":["Female estimates sit close to the floor: in the backtest the plain type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","Punks with 0 or 1 attributes, and Zombie, Ape and Alien punks, have few sales; their bands are wide and their confidence is Low.","Trained on native CryptoPunks marketplace sales only; wrapped-punk sales are not included yet."]},"as_of":{"date":"2026-11-08","note":"Fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08 UTC. `estimate` is valued at the latest exact floor (`fresh_floor`, refreshed hourly); `daily` is valued at that day's closing floor and is the one the track record scores.","written_at":"2026-11-09T00:20:39.191Z","fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"estimate":{"eth":36.9781,"usd":78517,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.1924,"high_eth":41.1955,"low_usd":70479,"high_usd":87472},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.7943,"high_eth":45.894,"low_usd":63263,"high_usd":97448},"sigma_log":0.108,"multiple_of_floor":1.2164,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.4,"floor_as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","basis":"hourly floor"},"daily":{"date":"2026-11-08","eth":36.9781,"usd":78517,"band_1sigma":{"low_eth":33.1924,"high_eth":41.1955,"low_usd":70479,"high_usd":87472},"band_2sigma":{"low_eth":29.7943,"high_eth":45.894,"low_usd":63263,"high_usd":97448},"sigma_log":0.108,"multiple_of_floor":1.2164,"n1_eth":30.669,"confidence":"Medium","cell":"Female 4+","floor_eth":30.4,"fingerprint_sha256":"8643503c6f1ea280797873ec6e14ed6443d548a08977cc39fd5268725d862fc4"},"fresh_floor":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":14,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"floor":{"as_of_date":"2026-11-08","eth":30.4,"eth_usd":2123.3378189594514,"latest":{"date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.4},"current":{"source":"hourly","as_of":"2026-11-09T09:04:23.000Z","block":26376317,"eth":30.4,"punk":7843,"public_asks":1160,"age_minutes":14,"stale":false,"label":"as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH","stale_note":null},"type_floor":{"type":"Female","date":"2026-11-09","eth":30.42,"public_asks":404,"punk":4351}},"listing":null,"argument":{"cell":"Female 4+","terms":[{"pct":23.3,"beta":0.2095,"term":"tone4","label":"Skin tone 4 (vs 1)","sales_12m":null,"weighted_sales":14.4},{"pct":-2.2,"beta":-0.0224,"term":"attr:Cigarette","label":"Cigarette","sales_12m":111,"weighted_sales":13.9}],"backtest":{"cell":"Female 4+","seen":{"n":135,"cover1":0.6,"cover2":0.815,"bias_pct":-0.9,"within10":0.763,"within25":0.933,"MdALE_pct":4.5},"thin":false,"sigma":0.054,"selection":{"n":177,"cover1":0.712,"cover2":0.921,"bias_pct":-0.5,"within10":0.819,"within25":0.966,"MdALE_pct":3.4}},"own_sales":[{"eth":64.99,"date":"2022-06-19","block":14991023,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":54,"adjusted_eth":29.6429},{"eth":73,"date":"2022-08-01","block":15255503,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":7,"adjusted_eth":30.0095},{"eth":66.09,"date":"2022-11-11","block":15947561,"source":"native-bid","excluded":null,"log_index":8,"adjusted_eth":30.2126},{"eth":67.69,"date":"2022-11-15","block":15978349,"source":"native-buy","excluded":null,"log_index":155,"adjusted_eth":30.944}],"comparables":[{"eth":30.8,"date":"2026-06-05","punk":9691,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.26,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":29.35,"date":"2026-01-15","punk":2127,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5876,"shared_attributes":3},{"eth":29.39,"date":"2026-10-27","punk":6897,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.3032,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.99,"date":"2026-10-27","punk":6897,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.9044,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":28.44,"date":"2026-10-27","punk":6897,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":28.3561,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":31.5,"date":"2026-10-08","punk":4075,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":29.2397,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":33.6,"date":"2026-09-23","punk":4075,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.0424,"shared_attributes":2},{"eth":29.74,"date":"2026-09-20","punk":4075,"source":"native-buy","adjusted_eth":30.5026,"shared_attributes":2}],"premium_log":0.1871,"type_multiple":{"sales":439,"period":"12 months","multiple":1.0088,"median_multiple":1.0088},"no_clear_premium":[{"attribute":"Black Lipstick","sales_12m":95},{"attribute":"Mohawk Dark","sales_12m":53},{"attribute":"Green Eye Shadow","sales_12m":32}],"summary":["Estimate 37.0 ETH (beta), 1σ range 33.2 to 41.2 ETH, 2σ range 29.8 to 45.9 ETH, confidence Medium, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).","Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.","Female punks sold at a median 1.01x the floor of the day before (439 sales, 12 months).","Terms with clear support: Skin tone 4 (vs 1) +23%, Cigarette -2%.","Female estimates sit close to the floor by design: in the backtest the floor times the type multiple was the better median guess for Female punks.","In the backtest, Female 4+ sales landed within ±3.4% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±4.5% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1)."]},"track_record":[],"cite_as":"PunkPrice (2026). CryptoPunks per-punk estimates (beta), model est-v2-202610, from CryptoPunks marketplace sales. https://punkprice.com/punk/9748","license":"CC BY 4.0","disclaimer":"Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.","links":{"listings":"https://punkprice.com/listings","backtest":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/backtest.json","track_record":"https://punkprice.com/api/estimate/track-record.json"}}