CryptoPunk #4414 valuation (beta)
Male, Mole, Normal Beard Black, Headband, Eye Mask.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 31.5 ETH (about $66,958). 1σ range 28.8 to 34.5 ETH, 2σ range 26.3 to 37.8 ETH. Confidence: Low. Valued at the latest floor (as of 08:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 40.0 ETH, 2.6σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 31.5 ETH (beta), 1σ range 28.8 to 34.5 ETH, 2σ range 26.3 to 37.8 ETH, confidence Low, as of 08:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 08:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Mole -7%.
- In the backtest, Male 4+ sales landed within ±6.9% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.6% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #8159 2026-10-09: 35.9 ETH (34.7 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-08)
- #5559 2026-09-21: 30.5 ETH (29.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-08)
- #1456 2026-04-08: 28.3 ETH (30.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-08)
- #6318 2026-02-23: 32.0 ETH (32.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-08)
- #6318 2026-02-11: 30.0 ETH (30.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-08)
- #4942 2026-02-05: 34.5 ETH (35.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-08)
- #9837 2025-08-19: 52.0 ETH (33.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-08)
- #9837 2025-08-09: 60.0 ETH (33.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-08)
Sales of this punk
- 2017-10-27: 0.10 ETH (accepted bid)
- 2019-04-22: 0.38 ETH (sale)
- 2021-08-16: 41.5 ETH (sale)
- 2021-08-23: 67.9 ETH (sale)
- 2025-05-13: 50.0 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.