CryptoPunk #4781 valuation (beta)
Male, Frown, Mohawk Thin.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 32.2 ETH (about $68,273). 1σ range 29.7 to 34.8 ETH, 2σ range 27.4 to 37.7 ETH. Confidence: High. Valued at the latest floor (as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08, model est-v2-202610.
Listed at 55.7 ETH, 6.9σ above the estimate.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 32.2 ETH (beta), 1σ range 29.7 to 34.8 ETH, 2σ range 27.4 to 37.7 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, 2 attributes (vs 3) -3%, Mohawk Thin -11%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #7440 2026-11-01: 40.4 ETH (40.4 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-08)
- #6066 2026-10-21: 60.0 ETH (58.3 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-08)
- #7711 2026-10-20: 29.0 ETH (28.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-08)
- #5098 2026-10-15: 30.4 ETH (29.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-08)
- #3758 2026-10-12: 40.0 ETH (38.6 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-08)
- #5098 2026-10-08: 31.3 ETH (29.1 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-08)
- #5635 2026-10-04: 33.4 ETH (30.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-08)
- #5329 2026-09-30: 38.9 ETH (35.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-08)
Sales of this punk
- 2022-05-08: 56.0 ETH (sale)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.