CryptoPunk #8494 valuation (beta)
Male, Normal Beard, Earring, Peak Spike.
Valuation (beta), not a floor: 34.3 ETH (about $72,747). 1σ range 31.5 to 37.3 ETH, 2σ range 28.9 to 40.6 ETH. Confidence: High. Valued at the latest floor (as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH), fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08, model est-v2-202610.
Not listed for sale.
Why this valuation
- Estimate 34.3 ETH (beta), 1σ range 31.5 to 37.3 ETH, 2σ range 28.9 to 40.6 ETH, confidence High, as of 09:04 UTC, floor 30.40 ETH (fitted on sales up to the end of 2026-11-08).
- Floor 30.4 ETH at 09:04 UTC; 30.4 ETH at the close of 2026-11-08.
- Male punks sold at a median 1.07x the floor of the day before (771 sales, 12 months).
- Terms with clear support: Male market level +5%, Skin tone 2 (vs 1) +10%, Earring -2%, Peak Spike -6%.
- In the backtest, Male 2-3 sales landed within ±6.1% of the estimate half the time (2023-2024) and within ±5.7% in 2025-2026 (months already seen in round 1).
Comparable sales
- #9018 2026-11-06: 31.8 ETH (31.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-08)
- #9018 2026-10-29: 30.0 ETH (31.5 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-08)
- #4202 2026-10-29: 40.0 ETH (41.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-08)
- #9404 2026-10-25: 29.5 ETH (29.2 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-08)
- #8427 2026-10-23: 29.4 ETH (28.8 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-08)
- #4714 2026-09-24: 39.9 ETH (36.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-08)
- #4755 2026-09-23: 33.5 ETH (30.0 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-08)
- #5133 2026-09-22: 34.0 ETH (31.9 ETH at the floor of 2026-11-08)
Sales of this punk
- 2020-06-28: 0.79 ETH (sale)
- 2021-04-27: 21.5 ETH (sale)
- 2021-05-03: 23.0 ETH (sale)
- 2022-01-25: 87.0 ETH (sale, not used: twin-of-nominal-24h)
Valuation (beta) from public marketplace sales: not an appraisal and not financial advice. It can be wrong, so read the range, not only the number.